How nuclear energy may make it happen
Published on August 31, 2005 By Sturgee In Physics
Okay, this is going to be a bit of a long entry. Like many people, I'm a little concerned about the price of gas/oil these days. There are lots of ideas as to exactly why this is happening, and the why of it all isn't really pertinent to my entry, so I'll leave that for a different thread at another time.

Anyway, I was discussing the current situation with Marcus Aurelius, a co-worker of mine, and I mentioned that things are just going to get worse as China continues to develop economically. They have the fastest growing middle class in the world, and as the U.S. knows all too well, middle class = consumer. Mass consumerism will mean that the pictures we all know of hundreds of millions of Chinese riding bikes to work will change to hundreds of millions of Chinese driving cars. They will buy cheap consumer products made of plastic, which also comes from petroleum. I told Marcus that I expected China to become the #1 consumer of petroleum in the world within 5-10 years, and their consumption will grow exponentially over the next 20 years. This drastic increase in demand will cause oil prices to skyrocket globally... not a pretty picture.

Marcus then went on to enlighten me. He turned me on to an article in Wired Magazine that discussed China's move to gain massive growth in domestic energy through nuclear reactors. If you want all the details, read the article, but here's the short version:

China has developed a "new" type of nuclear reactor, called a Pebble Bed Reactor. This type of reactor is MUCH safer than the reactors currently used around the world, which utilize fuel rods and water. The pebble bed reactor is also more efficient, and can produce roughly 30% more power from the same amount of fuel, and by it's design, it is IMPOSSIBLE to have a meltdown. China has already built a 10 megawatt test facility, and shut down the cooling system, and the reactor cooled itself without any incident at all. Also, the facilities are much cheaper to build and run. By 2020, China plans to be producing 300 gigawatts per year, up 50 times over what they currently produce. Oh, and the temps created during the process are perfect for creating hydrogen... up to 60% more efficient than current low temperature methods.

So, what does this all mean? China, which has a booming economy, will be able to provide it's own energy. That means it won't have to send BILLIONS of it's $$ overseas for foreign oil. It will also be able to produce hydrogen (potentially even mass produce it). If it can develop the technology to build practical hydrogen-powered cars, it will be able to domestically produce it's transportation vehicles, and the fuel to drive them, again saving BILLIONS of dollars. If they can mass produce hydrogen, and if (big if here, I know) the rest of the world buys into hydrogen-powered vehicles, then they could sell their hydrogen for BILLIONS of $$.

So, as China becomes an economic giant in the next 20 years, they will save themselves TRILLIONS of $$ by not importing petroleum to supply domestic energy, and potentially have petroleum free cars. They may also have the ability to grow their economy with international sales of hydrogen. This would make China the undisputed economic leader of the world, with the ability to influence the world in a number of ways.

We need to wake up and compete here folks.... pebble bed reactors anybody?


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Comments
on Aug 31, 2005
why are americans so xenophobic and paranoid? those dudes were kings of the world throughout much of history why only complain now?

on Aug 31, 2005
It wont happen because - A: It makes sense, B: It is safe, C: you still have to dispose of the spent fuel.
on Aug 31, 2005
*sigh*

China will be a super power in the economy unless its peoples revolte for one reason or another to create instability.

It will rival or surpass the US in a few years.

Mean while we already have a solution, but it costs too much to get it started. I think once we realize we have to go with it, we will make the changes and spend the money and biuld the infrastructure to do it.
on Aug 31, 2005

China will be a super power in the economy unless its peoples revolte for one reason or another to create instability.

It will rival or surpass the US in a few years.

I dont agree.  It will surpass us when the revolt (or at least have a velvet revolution).  They have gone as far as they are going to with their current system.  They now have too many millionaires.  They either adapt or succumb.

on Aug 31, 2005
why are americans so xenophobic and paranoid?


Umm... I really hope you don't think I'm xenophobic... seeing as my wife is Asian and all...

those dudes were kings of the world throughout much of history why only complain now?


I see you don't really know history. Yes, China at different periods in history had a strong influence in Asia, but they NEVER dominated the world. They couldn't even dominate South Asia, which was just around the corner from them, much less Europe (who they traded with). Sure, they have been a world power before, but never THE world power....

I'm not overly opposed to China gaining prominence in the world. It would be nice if they didn't exert their influence through raw power though (Tibet anybody?). Having said that, I also have an interest in my own country having a strong economy, and this idea of pebble bed reactors seems like an interesting way to provide large amounts of relatively cheap energy. I'm sure that at the rate China is growing, it will eventually be the biggest kid on the block economically anyway, but it would be nice if we could still at least provide for ourselves...
on Aug 31, 2005
Sure, they have been a world power before, but never THE world power....

This is true. So far only the British (to a large extent) and the Americans (pretty much completely) have managed this feat. Nevertheless I think it's true that China has had the world's largest economy for most of human history and was only overtaken by the west as recently as about 1830. I have heard Sinophiles suggest that China will soon enjoy its former top dog status once again and that observers centuries from now will look back on the two centuries of western power as an insignificant 'blip' in the overall human story.

I think though that I agree with Dr. Guy. China's current political system is really holding them back. As long as that continues to repress the Chinese and other peoples and stifle innovation and creativity, there's no need to practice our 'kow-tow' just yet.
on Aug 31, 2005

I think though that I agree with Dr. Guy. China's current political system is really holding them back. As long as that continues to repress the Chinese and other peoples and stifle innovation and creativity, there's no need to practice our 'kow-tow' just yet.

That is the best compliment I have ever received, and high praise from you.  Guess I am learning from a master!

on Aug 31, 2005
China's current political system is really holding them back. As long as that continues to repress the Chinese and other peoples and stifle innovation and creativity, there's no need to practice our 'kow-tow' just yet.


I'm not sure I totally agree. I think you are right that the current system stifles innovation and creativity. However, being as populous as they are, and as large as they are in land, they absolutely must increase infrastructure to support the growth that they are going through, and will continue to go through in the coming decades. The #1 thing they need is energy to support the continued industrialization and modernization. Nuclear power is pretty much the cheapest way to get lots of energy. China's system allows the government to dictate exactly what course of action the country will take, and make it happen. There is no referendum. There is no dissent. The Chinese have gone from initial idea to ground breaking on these nuclear reactors in something like 10 years. We can't get any type of "controversial" policy passed in decades here.

Just like China has begun loosening their government controlled economy gradually over the past decade or so, I think that the government control of the country will gradually decline, and the people of China will gain more independence and freedom. China needs to be in a position to allow it to happen though, and a strong economy is that position. Again, to get there, they need the infrastructure, and I (and my friend Marcus who I have discussed this with ad nauseum) think that China has targeted energy as the very fundamental core of what they need in order to build the rest of their economy upon.
on Sep 01, 2005
China needs to be in a position to allow it to happen though, and a strong economy is that position.

Yes, there could be something to that. I have read asian commentators who think that westerners, in prioritising democracy and human rights, are putting the cart before the horse; what is needed, they believe, is economic growth - prosperous people will then start to demand the rights and freedoms that they see other prosperous nations enjoying. While I'm not sure that this is true, one very good example of where it seems to have worked is South Korea which has been a democracy for barely a decade and a half. Much of its stupendous growth (eighth poorest nation on earth in the year of my birth, now poised to enter the global top ten)was achieved under a military dictatorship which routinely murdered non-violent opponents and forbade most of its citizens to leave the country.

Any number of fascist/military dictatorships around the world prove that capitalism does not have to be synonymous with freedom and democracy, yet I believe it works best when people are free, and is working properly when it makes people free.
on Oct 19, 2005
Or there is always the other possibility. China's current economic growth model encourages a wide gap between the "rich" (legal city dwellers) and the "poor" (peasants). With the way that China is prioritizing urban growth as a conduit for economic growth (see Shanghai) over rural development projects (see millions forced to move for the three gorges dam project) there is little possibility of another outcome. If China can move just 20-30 percent of it's population to near EU per capita income (which BTW is 32nd in the world), well....that would put them easily on a level playing field with the EU and/or the US. One China two systems seems to be the idea. Basically, define regions of relative freedom for that 20-30 percent, corden them off from the peasantry and build a superpower. Despite Mao's rhetoric, the peasant class were screwed by the Emperors, then the Commies and soon to be screwed royally under this new Capitolist communism theory. As a result they have really two choices with what they can do with the peasantry. a) cut them off and let 'em figure it out themselves (DANGEROUS!) continue their policy of using them as cannon fodder in regional conflicts i.e. "Project Taiwan Reclamation". It's obvious that the Chinese central committee has really no desire to continue implimenting socialism as a class eraser. It's bad for business and is no way to run a country.